An expert-based system to predict population survival rate from health data.

Timely detection and understanding of causes for population decline are essential for effective wildlife management and conservation. Assessing trends in population size has been the standard approach, but we propose that monitoring population health could prove more effective. We collated data from 7 bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) populations in the southeastern United States to develop a method for estimating survival probability based on a suite of health measures identified by experts as indices for inflammatory, metabolic, pulmonary, and neuroendocrine systems. We used logistic regression to implement the veterinary expert system for outcome prediction (VESOP) within a Bayesian analysis framework. We fitted parameters with records from 5 of the sites that had a robust network of responders to marine mammal strandings and frequent photographic identification surveys that documented definitive survival outcomes. We also conducted capture-mark-recapture (CMR) analyses of photographic identification data to obtain separate estimates of population survival rates for comparison with VESOP survival estimates. The VESOP analyses showed that multiple measures of health, particularly markers of inflammation, were predictive of 1- and 2-year individual survival. The highest mortality risk 1 year following health assessment related to low alkaline phosphatase (odds ratio [OR] = 10.2 [95% CI: 3.41-26.8]), whereas 2-year mortality was most influenced by elevated globulin (OR = 9.60 [95% CI: 3.88-22.4]); both are markers of inflammation. The VESOP model predicted population-level survival rates that correlated with estimated survival rates from CMR analyses for the same populations (1-year Pearson's r = 0.99, p = 1.52 × 10-5 ; 2-year r = 0.94, p = 0.001). Although our proposed approach will not detect acute mortality threats that are largely independent of animal health, such as harmful algal blooms, it can be used to detect chronic health conditions that increase mortality risk. Random sampling of the population is important and advancement in remote sampling methods could facilitate more random selection of subjects, obtainment of larger sample sizes, and extension of the approach to other wildlife species.

Un sistema basado en conocimiento experto para predecir la tasa de supervivencia a partir de datos de salud Resumen La detección y el entendimiento oportunos de la declinación poblacional son esenciales para que el manejo y la conservación de fauna tengan efectividad. La evaluación de las tendencias en el tamaño poblacional ha sido la estrategia estándar, pero proponemos que el monitoreo de la salud poblacional podría ser más efectivo. Recopilamos datos de siete poblaciones de delfines (Tursiops truncatus) en el sureste de Estados Unidos para desarrollar un método de estimación de la probabilidad de supervivencia con base en un conjunto de medidas sanitarias identificadas por expertos como índices para los sistemas inflamatorio, metabólico, pulmonar y neuroendocrino. Usamos la regresión logística para implementar el sistema de expertos veterinarios para la predicción de resultados (SEVPR) en un análisis bayesiano. Ajustamos los parámetros con los registros de cinco sitios que contaban con una buena red de respondientes a los varamientos de mamíferos marinos y censos de identificación fotográfica (foto-ID) que documentaron los resultados de supervivencia definitivos. También realizamos análisis de marcaje-recaptura (MR) en los datos de identificación fotográfica para obtener estimados separados de las tasas de supervivencia poblacional para compararlos con los estimados del SEVPR. Los análisis del SEVPR mostraron que varias medidas sanitarias, particularmente los marcadores de inflamación son buenos predictores de la supervivencia individual para uno y dos años. El riesgo de mortalidad más alto un año después de la valoración sanitaria se relacionó con una fosfatasa alcalina baja (cociente de probabilidades de 10.2 [95% CI 3.41-26.8]), mientras que la mortalidad a los dos años estuvo más influenciada por una globulina elevada (9.60 [95% CI 3.88-22.4]); ambas son marcadores de la inflamación. El modelo del SEVPR predijo las tasas de supervivencia a nivel poblacional en correlación con las tasas estimadas de supervivencia de los análisis de MR para las mismas poblaciones (Pearson de un año r = 0.99, p = 1.52e-05; dos años r = 0.94, p = 0.001). Aunque nuestra propuesta no detecta las amenazas agudas de mortalidad que en su mayoría son independientes de la salud animal, como la proliferación de algas nocivas, puede usarse para detectar las condiciones crónicas de salud que incrementan el riesgo de mortalidad. Es importante el muestreo aleatorio de la población y los avances en los métodos de muestreo remoto podrían facilitar una selección más aleatoria de los sujetos, la obtención de muestras de mayor tamaño y la expansión de la estrategia a otras especies de fauna.

Using Blood Gas Analysis and Capnography to Determine Oxygenation Status in Bottlenose Dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) Following the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill.

Following the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill in 2010, poor pulmonary health and reproductive failure in bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in the northern Gulf of Mexico were well-documented. One postulated etiology for the increased fetal distress syndrome and pneumonia found in affected perinatal dolphins was maternal hypoxia caused by lung disease. The objective of this study was to evaluate the utility of blood gas analysis and capnography in determining oxygenation status in bottlenose dolphins with and without pulmonary disease. Blood and breath samples were collected from 59 free-ranging dolphins in Barataria Bay, Louisiana (BB), during a capture-release health assessment program, and from 30 managed dolphins from the U.S. Navy Marine Mammal Program in San Diego, CA. The former was the oil-exposed cohort and the latter served as a control cohort with known health histories. Capnography and select blood gas parameters were compared based on the following factors: cohort, sex, age/length class, reproductive status, and severity of pulmonary disease. Animals with moderate-severe lung disease had higher bicarbonate concentrations (p = 0.005), pH (p < 0.001), TCO2 (p = 0.012), and more positive base excess (p = 0.001) than animals with normal-mild disease. Capnography (ETCO2) was found to have a weak positive correlation with blood PCO2 (p = 0.020), with a mean difference of 5.02 mmHg (p < 0.001). Based on these findings, indirect oxygenation measures, including TCO2, bicarbonate, and pH, show promise in establishing the oxygenation status in dolphins with and without pulmonary disease.

Adult-onset epilepsy and hippocampal pathology in a California sea lion (Zalophus californianus): A case study of suspected in utero exposure to domoic acid.

Domoic acid (DA) is a naturally occurring marine neurotoxin produced by Pseudo-nitzschia diatoms. Adult California sea lions (Zalophus californianus) can experience multiple post-exposure syndromes, including acute toxicosis and chronic epilepsy. Additionally, a delayed-onset epileptic syndrome is proposed for California sea lions (CSL) exposed in utero. This brief report explores a case of a CSL developing adult-onset epilepsy with progressive hippocampal neuropathology. Initial brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and hippocampal volumetric analyses relative to brain size were normal. Approximately 7 years later, MRI studies to evaluate a newly developed epileptic syndrome demonstrated unilateral hippocampal atrophy. While other causes of unilateral hippocampal atrophy cannot be completely excluded, this case may represent in vivo evidence of adult-onset epileptiform DA toxicosis in a CSL. By estimating in utero DA exposure time period, and extrapolating from studies conducted on laboratory species, this case provides circumstantial evidence for a neurodevelopmental explanation correlating in utero exposure to adult-onset disease. Evidence of delayed disease development secondary to gestational exposure to naturally occurring DA has broad implications for marine mammal medicine and public health.

Modeling population effects of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill on a long-lived species.

The 2010 Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill exposed common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in Barataria Bay, Louisiana to heavy oiling that caused increased mortality and chronic disease and impaired reproduction in surviving dolphins. We conducted photographic surveys and veterinary assessments in the decade following the spill. We assigned a prognostic score (good, fair, guarded, poor, or grave) for each dolphin to provide a single integrated indicator of overall health, and we examined temporal trends in prognostic scores. We used expert elicitation to quantify the implications of trends for the proportion of the dolphins that would recover within their lifetime. We integrated expert elicitation, along with other new information, in a population dynamics model to predict the effects of observed health trends on demography. We compared the resulting population trajectory with that predicted under baseline (no spill) conditions. Disease conditions persisted and have recently worsened in dolphins that were presumably exposed to DWH oil: 78% of those assessed in 2018 had a guarded, poor, or grave prognosis. Dolphins born after the spill were in better health. We estimated that the population declined by 45% (95% CI 14-74) relative to baseline and will take 35 years (95% CI 18-67) to recover to 95% of baseline numbers. The sum of annual differences between baseline and injured population sizes (i.e., the lost cetacean years) was 30,993 (95% CI 6607-94,148). The population is currently at a minimum point in its recovery trajectory and is vulnerable to emerging threats, including planned ecosystem restoration efforts that are likely to be detrimental to the dolphins' survival. Our modeling framework demonstrates an approach for integrating different sources and types of data, highlights the utility of expert elicitation for indeterminable input parameters, and emphasizes the importance of considering and monitoring long-term health of long-lived species subject to environmental disasters. Article impact statement: Oil spills can have long-term consequences for the health of long-lived species; thus, effective restoration and monitoring are needed.

El derrame de petróleo Deepwater Horizon (DWH) en 2010 expuso gravemente a este hidrocarburo a los delfines (Tursiops truncatus) de la Bahía Barataria, Luisiana, causando un incremento en la mortalidad y en las enfermedades crónicas, y deteriorando la reproducción de los delfines sobrevivientes. Realizamos censos fotográficos y evaluaciones veterinarias durante la década posterior al derrame. Asignamos un puntaje pronóstico (bueno, favorable, moderado, malo, o grave) a cada delfín para proporcionar un indicador integrado único de la salud en general. También examinamos las tendencias temporales de estos puntajes. Usamos información de expertos para cuantificar las implicaciones de las tendencias para la proporción de delfines que se recuperaría dentro de su periodo de vida. Integramos esta información, junto con información nueva, a un modelo de dinámica poblacional para predecir los efectos sobre la demografía de las tendencias observadas en la salud. Comparamos la trayectoria poblacional resultante con aquella pronosticada bajo condiciones de línea base (sin derrame). Las condiciones de enfermedad persistieron y recientemente han empeorado en los delfines que supuestamente estuvieron expuestos al petróleo de DWH: 78% de aquellos evaluados en 2018 tuvieron un pronóstico moderado, malo o grave. Los delfines que nacieron después del derrame contaron con mejor salud. Estimamos que la población declinó en un 45% (95% CI 14-74) relativo a la línea base y tardará 35 años (95% CI 18-67) en recuperar el 95% de los números de línea base. La suma de las diferencias anuales entre el tamaño poblacional de línea base y el dañado (es decir, los años cetáceos perdidos) fue de 30,993 (95% CI 6,607-94,148). La población actualmente está en un punto mínimo de su trayectoria de recuperación y es vulnerable a las amenazas emergentes, incluyendo los esfuerzos de restauración ambiental planeada que probablemente sean nocivos para la supervivencia de los delfines. Nuestro marco de modelado demuestra una estrategia para la integración de diferentes fuentes y tipos de datos, resalta la utilidad de la información de expertos para los parámetros de aportación indeterminable, y enfatiza la importancia de la consideración y el monitoreo de la salud a largo plazo de las especies longevas sujetas a los desastres ambientales. Modelado de los Efectos Poblacionales del Derrame de Petróleo Deepwater Horizon sobre Especies Longevas.

Cardiac assessments of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in the Northern Gulf of Mexico following exposure to Deepwater Horizon oil.

The Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill profoundly impacted the health of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in Barataria Bay, LA (BB). To comprehensively assess the cardiac health of dolphins living within the DWH oil spill footprint, techniques for in-water cardiac evaluation were refined with dolphins cared for by the U.S. Navy Marine Mammal Program in 2018 and applied to free-ranging bottlenose dolphins in BB (n = 34) and Sarasota Bay, Florida (SB) (n = 19), a non-oiled reference population. Cardiac auscultation detected systolic murmurs in the majority of dolphins from both sites (88% BB, 89% SB) and echocardiography showed most of the murmurs were innocent flow murmurs attributed to elevated blood flow velocity [1]. Telemetric six-lead electrocardiography detected arrhythmias in BB dolphins (43%) and SB dolphins (31%), all of which were considered low to moderate risk for adverse cardiac events. Echocardiography showed BB dolphins had thinner left ventricular walls, with significant differences in intraventricular septum thickness at the end of diastole (p = 0.002), and left ventricular posterior wall thickness at the end of diastole (p = 0.033). BB dolphins also had smaller left atrial size (p = 0.004), higher prevalence of tricuspid valve prolapse (p = 0.003), higher prevalence of tricuspid valve thickening (p = 0.033), and higher prevalence of aortic valve thickening (p = 0.008). Two dolphins in BB were diagnosed with pulmonary arterial hypertension based on Doppler echocardiography-derived estimates and supporting echocardiographic findings. Histopathology of dolphins who stranded within the DWH oil spill footprint showed a significantly higher prevalence of myocardial fibrosis (p = 0.003), regardless of age, compared to dolphins outside the oil spill footprint. In conclusion, there were substantial cardiac abnormalities identified in BB dolphins which may be related to DWH oil exposure, however, future work is needed to rule out other hypotheses and further elucidate the connection between oil exposure, pulmonary disease, and the observed cardiac abnormalities.

Biochemical and hematological biomarkers of reproductive failure in bottlenose dolphins Tursiops truncatus.

The physiological demands of pregnancy inevitably result in alterations in both biochemical and hematological parameters as fetal development occurs. The shifts observed in successful pregnancy in bottlenose dolphins Tursiops truncatus to support both fetal physiological needs and maternal basal requirements have been established according to each trimester. Detecting aberrations in blood-based biomarkers could help facilitate diagnosis of gestational abnormalities, improve our understanding of factors influencing reproductive outcomes and aid in prediction of reproductive failure. This study retrospectively analyzed 263 blood samples from 15 bottlenose dolphins in 21 failed pregnancies over 28 yr (1989-2017). Most samples remained within normal pregnancy reference ranges; however, significant shifts were observed between trimesters. Hematological alterations, compared to successful pregnancy reference ranges from previously published data, were consistent across failed pregnancies and included an increased prevalence of elevated 2nd and 3rd trimester neutrophils, elevated 2nd trimester monocytes and decreased 3rd trimester eosinophils. In addition, low hematocrit and low red blood cells were more prevalent in the 2nd trimester. Biochemical shifts included an increased prevalence of elevated creatine phosphokinase in the 3rd trimester outside of the normal reference ranges. Across failed pregnancies, calcium and iron were decreased in the 3rd trimester. Significantly decreased progesterone in the 3rd trimester was a negative prognostic indicator of pregnancy outcome with decreasing 3rd trimester progesterone associated with failed pregnancy. This study demonstrates the use of blood-based biomarkers as possible predictors of pregnancy outcome in bottlenose dolphins.

Standardization of Dolphin Cardiac Auscultation and Characterization of Heart Murmurs in Managed and Free-Ranging Bottlenose Dolphins (Tursiops truncatus).

Cardiac auscultation is an important, albeit underutilized tool in aquatic animal medicine due to the many challenges associated with in-water examinations. The aims of this prospective study were to (1) establish an efficient and repeatable in-water cardiac auscultation technique in bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus), (2) describe the presence and characterization of heart murmurs detected in free-ranging and managed dolphins, and (3) characterize heart murmur etiology through echocardiography in free-ranging dolphins. For technique development, 65 dolphins cared for by the Navy Marine Mammal Program (Navy) were auscultated. The techniques were then applied to two free-ranging dolphin populations during capture-release health assessments: Sarasota Bay, Florida (SB), a reference population, and Barataria Bay, LA (BB), a well-studied population of dolphins impacted by the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Systolic heart murmurs were detected at a frequent and similar prevalence in all dolphin populations examined (Navy 92%, SB 89%, and BB 88%), and characterized as fixed or dynamic. In all three populations, sternal cranial and left cranial were the most common locations for murmur point of maximal intensity (PMI). An in-water transthoracic echocardiogram technique was refined on a subset of Navy dolphins, and full echocardiographic exams were performed on 17 SB dolphins and 29 BB dolphins, of which, 40 had murmurs. Spectral Doppler was used to measure flow velocities across the outflow tracts, and almost all dolphins with audible murmurs had peak outflow velocities ≥1.6 m/s (95%, 38/40); three dolphins also had medium mitral regurgitation which could be the source of their murmurs. The presence of audible murmurs in most of the free-ranging dolphins (88%) was attributed to high velocity blood flow as seen on echocardiography, similar to a phenomenon described in other athletic species. These innocent murmurs were generally characterized as Grade I-III systolic murmurs with PMI in the left or sternal cranial region. This study is the first to describe an efficient technique for in-water dolphin cardiac auscultation, and to present evidence that heart murmurs are common in bottlenose dolphins.

Ultrasonographic findings associated with normal pregnancy and fetal well-being in the bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus).

Reproductive success is vital in sustaining free-ranging and managed bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) populations. Ultrasonography is an invaluable, non-invasive tool in assessing the fetomaternal unit in humans and animals, including dolphins and horses. The purpose of this prospective longitudinal cohort study was to develop a protocol for fetomaternal ultrasonographic monitoring in dolphins and to report normal measurements and descriptive findings correlated with a positive outcome. From 2010 to 2017, serial ultrasonographic evaluations of 12 healthy dolphins were performed over the course of 16 pregnancies. A total of 203 ultrasound examinations were included in the study. Several metrics were accurate in predicting fetal age. Fetal biparietal diameter (BPD), thoracic width in dorsal and transverse planes, thoracic height in a sagittal plane, aortic diameter, and blubber thickness all demonstrated high correlation with gestational age (r > 0.94, P < .00001). Regional uteroplacental thickness significantly increased with each trimester (range 0.22-0.40 cm; P < .00011 cranial uterus, P < .00057 mid, and P < .000011 caudal). Lung:liver mean pixel intensity was 2.57 ± 0.46 (95% confidence interval 2.47-2.67). Ultrasonographic characteristics of normal pregnancy in dolphins are described and an equation for prediction of parturition date in Tursiops is reported: days to parturition = 348.16 - (26.03 × BPD(cm)) (R2  = 0.99). Future applications of these normal data will help identify in utero abnormalities indicative of fetal morbidity, and improve understanding of reproductive failure in wild and managed populations.

Pregnancy profiles in the common bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus): Clinical biochemical and hematological variations during healthy gestation and a successful outcome.

The physiological demands of pregnancy inevitably result in changes of both biochemical and hematological parameters as the fetus develops. Alterations in blood parameters have been observed to shift according to both trimester and species, to support fetal physiological needs and maternal basal requirements. Establishing normal reference ranges for each stage in gestation is important to facilitate diagnosis of underlying health concerns and prevent over-diagnosing abnormalities. Despite bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) being one of the most highly studied cetaceans, the blood profile changes occurring as a result of pregnancy have not been previously described. A retrospective analysis was performed from blood samples obtained from 42 successful pregnancies from 20 bottlenose dolphins in a managed population over 30 years. Samples were compared to non-pregnant states and among trimesters of pregnancy. Blood profile fluctuations occurred throughout gestation, however significant alterations predominantly occurred between the 2nd and 3rd trimester. Hematological changes from the 2nd to the 3rd trimester included a decrease in lymphocytes, decrease in platelet count, and hemoconcentration with increased hematocrit and hemoglobin. Biochemical changes in the 3rd trimester included significant reductions in ALKP (alkaline phosphatase), ALT (alanine aminotransferase) and AST (aspartate aminotransferase) with significant increases observed in albumin, globulins, total protein, cholesterol, triglycerides and CO2. It's important to note that despite significant shifts occurring between the 2nd and 3rd trimester, there was no significant change in platelets, hematocrit, hemoglobin, lymphocytes or CO2 between non-pregnant and 3rd trimester blood samples. The normal reference ranges for each trimester established herein, will enable future identification of abnormalities occurring during pregnancy and help improve our understanding of factors potentially influencing a failed or successful pregnancy outcome.

Health Assessments of Common Bottlenose Dolphins (Tursiops truncatus): Past, Present, and Potential Conservation Applications.

The common bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) is a global marine mammal species for which some populations, due to their coastal accessibility, have been monitored diligently by scientists for decades. Health assessment examinations have developed a comprehensive knowledge base of dolphin biology, population structure, and environmental or anthropogenic stressors affecting their dynamics. Bottlenose dolphin health assessments initially started as stock assessments prior to acquisition. Over the last four decades, health assessments have evolved into essential conservation management tools of free-ranging dolphin populations. Baseline data enable comparison of stressors between geographic locations and associated changes in individual and population health status. In addition, long-term monitoring provides opportunities for insights into population shifts over time, with retrospective application of novel diagnostic tests on archived samples. Expanding scientific knowledge enables effective long-term conservation management strategies by facilitating informed decision making and improving social understanding of the anthropogenic effects. The ability to use bottlenose dolphins as a model for studying marine mammal health has been pivotal in our understanding of anthropogenic effects on multiple marine mammal species. Future studies aim to build on current knowledge to influence management decisions and species conservation. This paper reviews the historical approaches to dolphin health assessments, present day achievements, and development of future conservation goals.

ESTABLISHING MARGINAL LYMPH NODE ULTRASONOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS IN HEALTHY BOTTLENOSE DOLPHINS ( TURSIOPS TRUNCATUS).

Pulmonary disease has been well documented in wild and managed dolphin populations. The marginal lymph nodes of the dolphin thorax provide lymphatic drainage to the lungs and can indicate pulmonary disease. This study standardized a technique for rapid, efficient, and thorough ultrasonographic evaluation of the marginal lymph nodes in bottlenose dolphins ( Tursiops truncatus). Thoracic ultrasonography was performed on 29 clinically healthy adult bottlenose dolphins. Reference intervals for lymph node dimensions and ultrasonographic characteristics of marginal lymph nodes were determined from four transducer orientations: longitudinal, transverse, oblique, and an orientation optimized to the ultrasonographer's eye. The relationship between lymph node dimensions and dolphin age, sex, length, weight, origin, and management setting (pool versus ocean enclosure) were also evaluated. The mean marginal lymph nodes measured 5.26 cm in length (SD = 1.10 cm, minimum = 3.04 cm, maximum = 7.61 cm, reference interval [10th to 90th percentiles per node dimension] 3.78-6.55 cm) and 3.72 cm in depth (SD = 0.59 cm, minimum = 2.64, maximum = 5.38 cm, reference interval 2.98-4.50 cm). Sex, dolphin length, weight, and management setting had no effect on lymph node dimensions. Dolphins >30 yr of age had longer node lengths than dolphins 5-10 yr old. Node dimensions did differ between dolphins from various origins. Most commonly, the lymph node was found to be hyperechoic relative to surrounding soft tissues (98%) and to have irregular caudal borders (84%), ill-defined deep borders (83%), flat superficial border (67%), triangular or rounded triangle shape (59%), irregular cranial border (55%), and moderate heterogeneity (34%). The data reported in this study serve as a baseline reference that may contribute to earlier detection of pleural and pulmonary disease of managed and wild cetacean populations.